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Writer's pictureJoel Meléndez

Dissecting My Oscar's Predictions



As promised, I’ll be summarizing my results from the Oscar Nominations and along the way make a few observations in each category.



Joker making it in BOTH sound categories was something I expected, but it still surprised me. Ford v Ferrari and 1917 were the only assured nominees in both categories. Glad to see that Ad Astra got something (although I placed it in the wrong Sound category). Visual Effects was a piece of cake; The Irishman managed to get in, in the end.



For the first time ever, I predicted the Original Score category 100% correctly. It will be an interesting race to watch. Glad The Lion King missed in Song, but it’s sad to not see the Best Song in that whole shortlist, "Glasgow". Jessie Buckley would’ve put a shining moment into the ceremony. Your loss, AMPAS.



The BIGGEST snub is definitely Ruth E. Carter in Costume Design, no contest. She was going to win her 2nd Oscar if nominated. Parasite making it in Production Design is great news and very deserving. So happy about it. In a year of 3, I would’ve still missed 2 nominees in Make-Up & Hairstyling.


I didn’t see coming that Frozen II miss. Glad Klaus made it though, such an underrated film. A winner in this category is not so easy to predict. At this point, if you’re the favorite to win Documentary AND you’re also a CNN film, just give up. This branch never ceases to amaze me. At least Honeyland made history, becoming the first documentary to be nominated in both Documentary Feature and International Feature. Speaking of International, both Atlantics and Beanpole deserved better; big misses.



Happy to see The Lighthouse being recognized in Cinematography. Very well deserved. Omissions from Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Parasite are very sad indeed.



The most important category: Editing. Parasite made it, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and 1917 surprisingly didn’t. I kind of expected Joker and Jojo Rabbit getting in, but I don’t know how this affects the Best Picture race. Is Jojo a bigger threat than we thought? Joker too?


Went perfect in Adapted Screenplay. Sad for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, though. 1917, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood, and Parasite are together in Original Screenplay. I think the winner here is our Best Picture winner. Watch this race closely.



Jennifer López and Zhao Shuzhen missed; a backward step for inclusion from AMPAS, but somehow expected. Scarlett Johansson made it here too, a double nominee that can mean a threat in her other category. In Best Supporting Actor, Song Kang-ho missed, but I’m happy to see Tom Hanks back, though.



Awkwafina didn’t make it, but Cynthia Erivo did. Lupita Nyong’o should’ve been here too. And Alfre Woodard. And Ana de Armas. And Jessie Buckley. And Elisabeth Moss. Renée Zellweger might not be so safe as we thought; Scarlett Johansson is a real threat with that double nomination. SAG should confirm if my suspicions are correct.


The most competitive race is now easier to predict. I think Joaquin Phoenix has it and SAG will confirm that. Sad to not see Taron Egerton, EDDIE MURPHY, nor Adam Sandler here. They deserved better. Super happy for Antonio Banderas though, and Jonathan Pryce too; both first time nominees.



Another year, another all-male field in Directing... I won’t add to what’s been said already, but AMPAS needs to step up, the options were there, and they were fantastic options. Next year do better, please. Bong Joon-ho, Sam Mendes, and Quentin Tarantino are the favorites to win at this point.



After two years of missing one nominee, I finally got a perfect lineup in Best Picture again. If you ask me, it’s a good lineup; it could’ve been worse. So happy for Little Women, Parasite, and Ford v Ferrari making it.


In total, I went 81/109 for 74.31% accuracy. With shorts included, I went 88/124 for a 70.97% accuracy. Not bad, but I know I can do better. I think I peaked in 2016 since I’ve been in a downward spiral since. Next year I’ll try to be better. Also, maybe I’ll do better with winners, hopefully.


In these images, you can also see my raw predictions. Yellow means they were nominated; above the dotted line are my Final predictions in order of likelihood, and below the dotted line means next in line, in order of likelihood too. With this, you can see clearly how close I was in some of the surprises that made it in. Or how wrong I was in other categories.


As for the whole snub situation, I’m with all of you, but being mad won’t solve anything, except give us less life to enjoy. I will address this matter later because I feel inspired to write something about it. Watch out these days for it. Maybe tomorrow.


For now, that’s what I have. I know this might sound tired, but let’s try to be kind to each other. If we don’t have something nice to say, let’s not engage in fighting. We are better than this.






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